نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
چکیده
هدف: ﻫﺪف از پژوهش حاضر، طراحی مدل شبیهسازی توسعه گردشگری ورزشی استان اردبیل بود.
روش‌شناسی: روش پژوهش حاضر روش آمیخته (کیفی و کمی) که از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش، توصیفی تحلیلی بود. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎری ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ 18 ﻧﻔﺮ از ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن ﻧﻈﺮی و ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯽ بود. ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﯿﺮی ﺑﻪ روش ﻏﯿﺮاﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ و ﺑﻪﺻﻮرت ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪ ﺑﻮد و اﺑﺰار ﮔﺮدآوری دادهﻫﺎ، ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ و ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ بود. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ مضمون ﺑﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪﻫﺎی اﺻﻠﯽ و ﻓﺮﻋﯽ توسعه گردشگری ورزشی استان اردبیل ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ در ﺑﺨﺶ کمی، عوامل مؤثر شناسایی شده ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش دلفی فازی اولویتبندی شد و در نهایت معیارهای ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش‌های پویایی سیستم و ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزی ﻋﺎﻣﻞﺑﻨﯿﺎن شبیهسازی شد. ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ دادهﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در ﻓﺎز ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰارهای MAXQDA20 و در ﻓﺎز ﮐﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰارهای Excel، AnyLogic و Vensim اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.
یافته‌ها: بر اساس نتایج پژوهش 62 کد اولیه، 13 مضمون فرعی و 6 مضمون اصلی (زیرساختی، اقتصادی، سیاستهای کلان گردشگری ورزشی، بازاریابی، ورزشی و منابع انسانی) شناسایی شد که عامل زیرساختی بهعنوان تأثیرگذارترین عامل شناخته شد. همچنین ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزی نشان داد، ﻣﺪل اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺮآورد ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ از آﺗﯿﻪ توسعه گردشگری ورزشی در استان اردبیل اراﺋﻪ دهد.
نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به نتایج پژوهش، مطلوب است تا مدیران استان اردبیل برای توسعه گردشگری ورزشی، توجه ویژهای روی عوامل مؤثر شناسایی شده داشته باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Presenting a Simulation Model for Sports Tourism Development in Ardabil Province, Iran
نویسندگان [English]
- Ghasem Zarei 1
- seyedali naghavi 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2 Ph.D. student, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
چکیده [English]
Objective: The present study aimed to develop a simulation model for Sports Tourism Development (STD) in Ardabil Province, Iran.
Methodology: Utilizing a mixed-methods (qualitative and quantitative) research design, this applied study with a descriptive-analytical approach was performed on theoretical and experimental experts (n=18) as the statistical population, selected via non-probability, purposive sampling. For this purpose, interviews and questionnaires were employed as the data collection tools. During the qualitative phase, the main categories (themes) and sub-categories (sub-themes) of STD in Ardabil Province, Iran, were initially identified based on thematic analysis. Then, in the quantitative phase, the effective factors were prioritized by the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). At last, the given factors acquired from the qualitative analysis were simulated with reference to System Dynamics (SD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). The data analysis was also performed using MAXQDA 20 in the qualitative phase, Microsoft Excel, AnyLogic and Vensim in the quantitative one.
Results: The study results reduced to 62 initial codes, 13 sub-categories, 6 main categories (i.e., infrastructural, economic, macro-policies of sports tourism, marketing, sports, and human resources). In this sense, the infrastructural factor was in the first priority as the most effective one. Besides, the simulation output demonstrated that the proposed model could adequately estimate the future of STD in Ardabil Province, Iran.
Conclusion: According to the results of the research, it is desirable for the managers of Ardabil province to pay special attention to the identified effective factors for the development of sports tourism.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Development
- Sports Tourism
- System Dynamics
- Agent-Based Modeling
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