نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی و مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران
3 استادیار دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران
4 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت
چکیده
هدف: هدف اصلی این پژوهش، آینده پژوهی ورزش دانشگاهی ایران می‌باشد.
روش‌شناسی: در این پژوهش با استفاده از دو روش آینده‌پژوهی شامل تحلیل ساختاری و سناریونگاری ابتدا عدم قطعیت‌های کلیدی ورزش دانشگاهی ایران شناسایی شد و سپس سناریوهای آتی پیش روی ورزش دانشگاهی ایران تدوین گردید. داده‌های اولیه تحقیق با استفاده از مصاحبه با خبرگان ورزش دانشگاهی و مرور مبانی و پیشینه تحقیق جمع آوری شد و در قالب پرسشنامه خبره‌سنجی و با استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک تجزیه و تحلیل شدند. تعداد خبرگان تحقیق در این پژوهش 45 نفر از اساتید و متخصصین ورزشی بودند.
یافته‌ها: از میان هفده عامل موثر، ده عامل با اهمیت شناسایی گردید و با تجزیه و تحلیل نرم افزار میک مک در نهایت دو عامل کلیدی حمایت‌های مالی و اقتصادی و سبک زندگی مشخص شد. براساس این عوامل و با استفاده از نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد و ماتریس اثرات متقابل چهار سناریو بدست آمد. این سناریوها شامل سناریوی عصر شادی، دنیای بی تفاوتی، دنیای تنبل ها و دنیای افسرده می باشند.
نتیجه‌گیری: در سناریوی عصر شادی که بهترین وضعیت را نشان می‌دهد حمایت مالی زیاد و سبک زندگی مناسب آینده خوبی را برای ورزش دانشگاهی رقم می‌زند. سناریوی دنیای افسرده هم بدترین وضعیت را نشان می‌دهد که در آن حمایت مالی کم، زیرساخت‌های نامناسب و عدم فرهنگ‌سازی برای سبک زندگی پویا جوانان و دانشجویان را به سمت ورزش سوق نمی‌دهد. از طریق شناخت بهترین و مطلوب‌ترین آینده می‌توان برنامه‌های فعلی را به سمت تحقق آن سوق داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Scenario Planning of University Sports of Iran based on Future Study Approach
نویسندگان [English]
- reza fathi 1
- mohammad hossine maleki 2
- Ali Saberi 3
- atefe zandagahi 4
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran
4 MSc of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
Objective: The main goal of this research is Future Studies of University Sports of Iran
Methodology: In this study, using two future research methods including structural analysis and scenario writing, we first identified the key uncertainties of University Sports of Iran and then developed future scenarios for University Sports of Iran. Initial data were collected using interviews with Collegiate athleticsexperts and reviewing the literature. The questionnaire was analyzed by using the Mic-Mac software.
Results: Of the seventeen effective factors, ten important factors were identified and by analyzing the Mic-Mac software, finally, two key factors of financial, economic and lifestyle support were identified. Based on these factors, four scenarios were identified using the Wizard scenario software and Cross Impact Matrix. These scenarios include the age of happiness, the world of indifference, the lazy world and the depressed world.
Conclusion: In the age of happiness scenario, which shows the best situation, high financial support and a good lifestyle lead to a good future for college sports. The depressed world scenario also illustrates the worst situation in which underfunding, inadequate infrastructure, and lack of culture for a dynamic life style lead youth and students to not exercising. By identifying the best and most desirable future, current programs can drive that realization.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Future Study
- University Sports
- Scenario Planning
- Cross Impact Matrix
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