چکیده
هدف: امروزه با توجه به رشد جمعیت سالمندان و تغییرات هرم جمعیتی کشور؛ آیندهنگاری بر روی نیازهای سالمندان به عنوان یک گروه آسیب پذیر جامعه قابل تامل است. بدین جهت در این مقاله به بحث در خصوص تدوین سناریوهای عوامل موثر بر ورزش سالمندی ایران پرداخته است.
روششناسی: نوع تحقیق حاضر، کاربردی و روش بررسی آن با استفاده از روش آینده پژوهی است. در این تحقیق براساس ماهیت آن، اطلاعات لازم به دو شیوه کتابخانهای و پرسشنامهای گردآوری شد. با توجه به اینکه از نرمافزار Micmac و Scenario Wisard برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها استفاده شد، نوع پرسشنامه به صورت ماتریس آثار متقابل و به پیمایش نظرات کارشناسان و متخصصان بود.
یافتهها: برای تدوین سناریو، 6 عامل کلیدی موثر با تعیین حالتهای عدم قطعیت در پرسشنامه توسط خبرگان وارد نرمافزار سناریوویزارد گردیده و 2 سناریوی پیش روی آینده ورزش سالمندی ایران، مشخص گردید.
نتیجهگیری: سناریوی پیشرونده اگرچه امیدهای فراوانی به وقوع شرایط مطلوب در ورزش سالمندی را نشان میدهند، ولی از طرف دیگر وقوع سناریوی بازدارنده را دور از انتظار نمیداند.
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