نویسندگان
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دانشجوی دکتری پردیس بین المللی کیش دانشگاه تهران ایران
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استاد دانشگاه تهران.تهران، ایران
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استاد دانشگاه پردیس بین المللی کیش دانشگاه تهران
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استادیار دانشگاه تهران
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نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
چکیده
هدف: هدف کلی این پژوهش، تدوین سناریوها، راهبردها و سیاست های نوین مبتنی بر آینده های ورزش قهرمانی کشور می باشد.
روششناسی: روش تحقیق این پژوهش آیندهنگاری با تاکید بر روش تحلیل تاثیر متقابل و سناریونویسی است. نمونه گیری بر اساس پنل تخصصی و هدفمند و تعداد نمونه برابر شانزده نفر بود. از نرم افزار میکمک برای تحلیل اثرات متقابل استفاده شد.
یافته ها: نیروهای پیشران تاثیرگذار با بررسی پیشینه تحقیق و مصاحبه با پنل خبرگان استخراج شد. میزان تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری هر یک از آنها در مصاحبه های پنل خبرگان به دست آمد. نهایتاً، سه پیشران کلیدی ثبات مدیریت و نظام شایستهسالاری، استراتژی ملی برای میزبانی رویدادهای بزرگ و نگاه ویژه حاکمیت به ورزش بانوان ارائه، سناریوها تدوین و آینده های ممکن ترسیم گردید.
نتیجه گیری: نتایج این تحقیق می تواند چشم اندازی متفاوت پیش روی مدیران ورزش در بخش قهرمانی قرار دهد. ثبات در دوره تصدی مدیریتی، فرصت لازم را برای اجرای برنامه ها فراهم میکند؛ شایسته سالاری در انتخاب منابع انسانی، اهرمهای اجرایی را برای مدیر فراهم می کند؛ میزبانی رویداد باعث توسعه زیرساختها و توجه مسئولین به ورزش میشود؛ نهایتا، با توجه به اهمیت جهانی رشد ورزش زنان، باید به پتانسیل زنان در ورزش توجه کرد.
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