سناریوهای راهبردی توسعه ورزش استان فارس با رویکرد آمایش سرزمینی

نظری, رسول; شهولی کوه شوری, جواد; سالاری, محسن

doi:10.22124/jsmd.2025.18394.2477

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی Released under (CC BY-NC 4.0) license I Open Access I

نویسندگان

¹ دانشیار مدیریت ورزش، گروه علوم ورزشی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

² استادیارمدیریت ورزش، مرکز تحقیقات طب ورزشی، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران.

³ دکتری مدیریت ورزش، دانشکده تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران

10.22124/jsmd.2025.18394.2477

چکیده

هدف: مطالعه حاضر با هدف کشف آینده‌های پیش‌روی ورزش استان فارس و تدوین سناریوهای آن برای 20 سال آینده و ارائه استراتژی انجام شده است.
روش‌شناسی: این پژوهش با رویکرد سناریونگاری و استفاده از روش تحلیل روندها و عدم قطعیت‌ها به طراحی سناریوهای آینده پرداخته است. مشارکت‌کنندگان شامل 30 نفر از ذینفعان ورزش استان فارس بودند که به‌وسیله نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه جمع‌آوری شد. در ابتدا محدوده پروژه مشخص و عوامل اصلی توسعه شناسایی شد. سپس دو عدم قطعیت کلیدی برای طراحی سناریوها تعیین و چهار سناریوی ممکن تعریف؛ و در نهایت، یک استراتژی کلی بر اساس سناریوها ارائه شد.
یافته‌ها: 23 عامل مؤثر بر آینده ورزش استان فارس شناسایی شد. بر اساس تحلیل میزان تأثیرگذاری و عدم‌قطعیت این عوامل، دو بعد کلیدی «سازماندهی مجدد و خصوصی‌سازی با روش‌های نوین تعالی» و «توسعه گردشگری ورزشی با بهره‌گیری از فناوری‌های نوین و ارتباطات» شناسایی شدند. بر این اساس، ماتریس سناریو شکل گرفت و چهار سناریوی محتمل برای توسعه ورزش استان فارس تا افق 1420 تدوین شد.
نتیجه‌گیری: چالش اصلی توسعه ورزش استان فارس، نه در فقدان منابع، بلکه در نبود انسجام نهادی، ضعف برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی و بهره‌برداری ناکافی از ظرفیت‌های انسانی، اقلیمی و فناورانه است. بر اساس چهار سناریوی محتمل ورزش استان تا افق 1420، استراتژی «خصوصی‌سازی بر مبنای دسترسی حداکثری نسبت به اهداف (ورزش همگانی و قهرمانی و گردشگری ورزشی) با رویکرد بهره‌ورانه» می‌تواند مسیر مؤثری برای هدایت توسعه ورزش استان فراهم سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

توسعه ورزش و توسعه پایدار

عنوان مقاله [English]

Strategic Scenarios of Fars Sports Development with a Land Use Planning Approach

نویسندگان [English]

Rasoul Nazari ¹
Javad Shahvali Kohshouri ²
Mohsen Salari ³

¹ Associate Professor of Sport Management, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran

² Assistant Professor of Sports Management, Sports Medicine Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.

³ Ph.D of sport management, Faculty of Phisycal Education and Sport Sciences, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Objective: The present study was conducted with the aim of discovering the future of sports in Fars province and formulating its scenarios for the next 20 years and presenting a strategy.
Methodology: This research adopts a scenario-building approach and utilizes trend analysis and uncertainties to design future scenarios. The participants consisted of 30 stakeholders from the sports sector in Fars Province, selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected through interviews. Initially, the project scope was defined, and the main development factors were identified. Subsequently, two key uncertainties were determined to guide scenario design, and four possible scenarios were defined. Finally, a general strategy based on the scenarios was proposed.
Results: A total of 23 key factors influencing the future of sports in Fars Province were identified. Based on the analysis of the impact and uncertainty levels of these factors, two critical dimensions were determined: “restructuring and privatization based on modern excellence approaches” and “the development of sports tourism through the use of modern technologies and communication tools.” Accordingly, a scenario matrix was developed, and four plausible scenarios for the development of sports in Fars Province up to the horizon year 2041 were formulated.
Conclusion: The main challenge in the development of sports in Fars Province lies not in the lack of resources, but in the absence of institutional coherence, weak strategic planning, and insufficient utilization of human, environmental, and technological capacities. Based on the four plausible scenarios projected to the 2041 horizon, the strategy of “privatization aimed at maximizing access to key objectives (mass sport, elite sport, and sports tourism) through an efficiency-oriented approach” can provide an effective pathway for guiding the development of sports in the province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Foresight
Land Planning
Sport
Strategy
Uncertainty

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