sara jorkesh; rasool nazari
Abstract
Objective: considering the rapid growth of elderly society and changes in population pyramid in our country, prospecting based on elders’ demands, as a vulnerable group of society, is required to be taken into account. This article discusses the Codification of Influential Factor Scenarios for ...
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Objective: considering the rapid growth of elderly society and changes in population pyramid in our country, prospecting based on elders’ demands, as a vulnerable group of society, is required to be taken into account. This article discusses the Codification of Influential Factor Scenarios for Iranian Elderly Sport. Methodology: the present applied study is based on future study method. Data is collected through two ways of librarian and questionnaire methods. Implementing Micmac software and Scenario Wizard for data analysis, we took benefit of questionnaire in matrix form of mutual effects and examined experts and specialists' opinions. Results: in order to codify the scenario, six influential factors with determining uncertain statues in questionnaire were entered into Scenario Wizard; in addition, two forthcoming scenario for Iranian elderly sport were determined. Conclusion: Progressive scenario, although there is a high expectation of the occurrence of favorable conditions in old age sports, on the other hand, does not expect the occurrence of a deterrent scenario to be far-reaching.
reza fathi; mohammad hossine maleki; Ali Saberi; atefe zandagahi
Abstract
Objective: The main goal of this research is Future Studies of University Sports of Iran Methodology: In this study, using two future research methods including structural analysis and scenario writing, we first identified the key uncertainties of University Sports of Iran and then developed future scenarios ...
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Objective: The main goal of this research is Future Studies of University Sports of Iran Methodology: In this study, using two future research methods including structural analysis and scenario writing, we first identified the key uncertainties of University Sports of Iran and then developed future scenarios for University Sports of Iran. Initial data were collected using interviews with Collegiate athleticsexperts and reviewing the literature. The questionnaire was analyzed by using the Mic-Mac software. Results: Of the seventeen effective factors, ten important factors were identified and by analyzing the Mic-Mac software, finally, two key factors of financial, economic and lifestyle support were identified. Based on these factors, four scenarios were identified using the Wizard scenario software and Cross Impact Matrix. These scenarios include the age of happiness, the world of indifference, the lazy world and the depressed world. Conclusion: In the age of happiness scenario, which shows the best situation, high financial support and a good lifestyle lead to a good future for college sports. The depressed world scenario also illustrates the worst situation in which underfunding, inadequate infrastructure, and lack of culture for a dynamic life style lead youth and students to not exercising. By identifying the best and most desirable future, current programs can drive that realization.
Hossein Abdolmaleki; Fatemeh Heidari; Mahboubeh Allahyari; Seyed Bahador Zakizadeh
Abstract
Objective: nowadays, future study has been developed as a distinctive vision analytical tool. This tool, consider the possible future of different disciplines, thus help decision-making processes at different levels. Purpose of this study was identified of current achievements of sport management reviews, ...
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Objective: nowadays, future study has been developed as a distinctive vision analytical tool. This tool, consider the possible future of different disciplines, thus help decision-making processes at different levels. Purpose of this study was identified of current achievements of sport management reviews, factors that affect future of this field and present appropriate tactics for an ideal future. Methodology:This study was quantitative and qualitative. Method of data collection includes library research and the Delphi method. 11 professors of sports management with a futuristic vision formed the panel members. According to experts, 16 aspect of current state of sport management identified. Results: Research showed that the difference between importance and success in all 16 aspects of sport management studies was evaluated little success and the amount of high importance and there was significant difference found between success and their importance. Conclusion: The 11 areas which affect future of sport management were achieved and to achieve the ideal future was introduced 12 Tactics
fereshte adib roshan; Mehdi Talebpour; hosein peymanizad
Abstract
Objective: This research discusses future development of elite sports based on national perspective by using strategic management approaches relying on scenario– based planning models. Methodology: In this study has been used cross– impact analysis, and scenario-base planning have offered ...
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Objective: This research discusses future development of elite sports based on national perspective by using strategic management approaches relying on scenario– based planning models. Methodology: In this study has been used cross– impact analysis, and scenario-base planning have offered flexible and Comprehensive planning combination in proposing new style in foresight of sports development. Among used innovations, employing of Micmac and Scenario wizard software to cross– impact analysis and creating scenario carts can be mentioned. Results: In order to realize the research goals based on drawing the stable guideline of elite sports, first, by monitoring the literature and by using Panel of experts, proceeding forces having an impact on developing championship sports have been derivated. Then. After verification of their validity and durability by experts, in ponded sessions applying structured analysis matrix other has been assessed. Finally, using two key factors, with properties like having impact and uncertainlyEffectiveness and impact, the scenario logic is designed and finds scenarios is represented. The result of analyzing factor, derivation of two key factors including backing up of financial supporters and scenarios called "sprint", “relay race”, “high jumping” and “water pit”, than alternative position of them was determined. Conclusion: Finally, regarding the scenarios extracted, it is suggested that in the current chaotic and competitive situation, Youth and Sports General Directorate of Khorasan Razavi make long term plans and focus on foresight patterns. Besides, it should be conscious about the likelihood of each scenario by thorough and continuous environmental scanning and capture a comprehensive knowledge of the future by investigating and evaluating each of its strategies in case of happening each scenario and if necessary, it should formulate and replace new strategies
