Abstract

Objective: In view of the effective factors, this study was to present a simulation model for sports tourism development (STD) in Ardabil Province, Iran.
Methodology: Utilizing a mixed-methods (qualitative and quantitative) research design, this applied study with a descriptive-analytical approach was performed on theoretical and experimental experts (n=18) as the statistical population, selected via non-probability, purposive sampling. For this purpose, interviews and questionnaires were employed as the data collection tools. During the qualitative phase, the main categories (themes) and sub-categories (sub-themes) of STD in Ardabil Province, Iran, were initially identified based on thematic analysis. Then, in the quantitative phase, the effective factors were prioritized by the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). At last, the given factors acquired from the qualitative analysis were simulated with reference to System Dynamics (SD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). The data analysis was also performed using MAXQDA 20 in the qualitative phase, and Microsoft Excel, AnyLogic and Vensim in the quantitative one.
Results: The study results reduced to 62 initial codes, 13 sub-categories, 6 main categories (i.e., infrastructural, economic, macro-policies of sports tourism, marketing, sports, and human resources). In this sense, the infrastructural factor was in the first priority as the most effective one. Besides, the simulation output demonstrated that the proposed model could adequately estimate the future of STD in Ardabil Province, Iran.
Conclusion: According to the results of the research, it is desirable for the managers of Ardabil province to pay special attention to the identified effective factors for the development of sports tourism.