Sport Development and Sustainable Development
Rasoul Nazari; Javad Shahvali Kohshouri; Mohsen Salari
Abstract
Objective: The present study was conducted with the aim of discovering the future of sports in Fars province and formulating its scenarios for the next 20 years and presenting a strategy.Methodology: This research adopts a scenario-building approach and utilizes trend analysis and uncertainties to design ...
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Objective: The present study was conducted with the aim of discovering the future of sports in Fars province and formulating its scenarios for the next 20 years and presenting a strategy.Methodology: This research adopts a scenario-building approach and utilizes trend analysis and uncertainties to design future scenarios. The participants consisted of 30 stakeholders from the sports sector in Fars Province, selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected through interviews. Initially, the project scope was defined, and the main development factors were identified. Subsequently, two key uncertainties were determined to guide scenario design, and four possible scenarios were defined. Finally, a general strategy based on the scenarios was proposed.Results: A total of 23 key factors influencing the future of sports in Fars Province were identified. Based on the analysis of the impact and uncertainty levels of these factors, two critical dimensions were determined: “restructuring and privatization based on modern excellence approaches” and “the development of sports tourism through the use of modern technologies and communication tools.” Accordingly, a scenario matrix was developed, and four plausible scenarios for the development of sports in Fars Province up to the horizon year 2041 were formulated.Conclusion: The main challenge in the development of sports in Fars Province lies not in the lack of resources, but in the absence of institutional coherence, weak strategic planning, and insufficient utilization of human, environmental, and technological capacities. Based on the four plausible scenarios projected to the 2041 horizon, the strategy of “privatization aimed at maximizing access to key objectives (mass sport, elite sport, and sports tourism) through an efficiency-oriented approach” can provide an effective pathway for guiding the development of sports in the province.
